How Much Should I Offer on a House That's Been Sitting for Months?

"It has been on the market for months, how low can I go?" is one of the best questions a buyer can ask, because it means they have noticed something most buyers miss: the listing is not moving in a market where homes are selling. The pay-off is in the answer, and the answer is data, not a discount rule.

What "sitting" actually tells you

A listing that sits is telling you one of three things, and you need to know which one before you decide how to use it:

1. Price is out of line: the list price is above what similar homes have closed for, and the buyer pool has told the seller no for months. This is the most common cause, and it is the one that gives a data-backed below-list offer real negotiating power.
2. Condition or marketing is the problem: the home needs work, shows poorly, or was never marketed to the right buyers. The house may be fairly priced for its condition; the offer should price the condition honestly.
3. The buyer pool is thin: some homes appeal to a narrow slice of buyers, and they simply take longer. The price may be right and the offer may still land at or near list.

Step 1: closed comparables for the last six months

The offer number starts with recent closed sales, never list prices and never online estimates. Build the comparable set from homes of similar size, age, condition, and location that closed in the last six months, and adjust honestly for differences in upgrades, lot, and condition. That comparable range, not the days on market, is what defines a fair offer. I run this from MLS closed data for every client, and I show the comparables, because an offer you cannot defend with sold data is an offer the seller's agent will talk the seller out of.

Step 2: days on market by ZIP, with periods attached

Median days on market tells you the local rhythm, and it is only honest with the period attached. Redfin figures verified in this workspace, with their periods:

Source: Redfin median days on market, figures verified September 25, 2026. The 78133 figure carries a different period label (June 2026) than the others, so re-pull it the same day as the others before relying on it. Figures for New Braunfels, Schertz, and Cibolo should be pulled from the same tracker for the same day so the comparison is contemporaneous; I left them out here rather than quote a stale figure.

Step 3: sale-to-list and price-drop share

Two more Redfin figures, same periods, tell you how much negotiating room the market is giving right now:

• 78163 Bulverde (Aug 2026): 97.1% sale-to-list ratio, 47.4% of listings cutting price, average home closing about 3% below list.
• 78070 Spring Branch (Aug 2026): 97.8% sale-to-list ratio, 58.2% of listings cutting price.
• 78133 Canyon Lake (June 2026): 96.5% sale-to-list ratio, 49.3% of listings cutting price.

What these figures do and do not mean: a sale-to-list ratio below 100% tells you that, on average, homes are closing below their original list price in the period measured. It does not tell you what this house should sell for; that is still the comparables' job. Price-drop share tells you how many listings cut price, which is a pressure gauge for the market, not a discount code for your offer.

Step 4: the seller's carrying costs

Every month a listing sits, the seller keeps paying the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, utilities, and upkeep while getting nothing back, and on top of that, the price cuts the market is applying. Those carrying costs do not set fair market value, but they set the negotiation context: a seller three months into an empty house that needs the equity out is a different counterparty than a seller who listed two weeks ago. It is legitimate to consider them, and it is more important that your offer and your financing look like they will actually close, because a serious, pre-approved offer is what moves a motivated seller most.

The defensible answer is a CMA

When you add the six months of closed comparables, the dated market figures, the price history of the listing itself, and the carrying-cost pressure, you have a comparative market analysis, and that is the only defensible basis for an offer number. I provide the CMA for any home you are seriously considering, and because I am also your loan officer, I can attach financing strength that makes a below-list offer feel like easy money to a tired seller. That combination, data plus a buyer who can close, is what actually negotiates a sitting house down.

Frequently Asked Questions