PATRICK’S QUICK ANSWER
The honest answer: buy when you are ready, not when the rate hits a number you invented. Rates near 6.7% in September 2026 are close to the historical normal, and waiting means paying rent while prices and rates can move. In a slower market you have negotiating leverage, and you can always refinance later if rates drop. Timing your life around a rate usually loses.
The most common question I hear is whether to buy now or wait for rates to drop, and the honest answer is usually 'buy when it makes sense for you, not when the rate hits a number you invented.' Rates sat near 6.7% to 6.8% in September 2026 with the Freddie Mac average around 6.76%, and that is close to the historical normal, not an outlier. Here is the realistic way to think about timing.
In this guide I cover the current rate environment, why timing the market rarely wins the way it looks, what waiting genuinely costs in rent and price appreciation, why today's slower San Antonio market works in a buyer's favor, and the math of buying now and refinancing later. Every scenario is an estimate.
Where Rates Sit in 2026
The 30-year fixed has spent much of 2026 in the high 6s, with Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey around 6.76% in September 2026 (an estimate). For context, the long-run average for a 30-year fixed is in the mid-to-high 6s, so current levels are normal, not some temporary spike. Anyone telling you rates are 'historically bad' is comparing against the once-in-a-generation lows of 2020 and 2021, which are not the baseline.
Why Timing the Market Rarely Wins
Waiting assumes you can predict the bottom and that prices will hold still while you wait. Neither is reliable. Rates can move down, up, or sideways, and no one rings a bell. Meanwhile the home you want gets bought by someone else, or its price climbs while you wait for a rate that does not behave. The buyers who win are the ones who buy when they are financially ready at a price and payment that work for decades, not the ones who try to catch a rate bottom.
What Waiting Actually Costs
Two big costs hide in the word 'wait.' First, you pay rent while you wait, money that builds no equity. Second, home prices can appreciate while you wait, so the same home costs more later, which can offset the whole benefit of a lower rate. In a market where prices are climbing a few percent a year, waiting twelve months for a half-point rate drop can leave you right back where you started, or behind.
Today's Slower Market Means Buyer Leverage Now
This is the part people miss. San Antonio and the Hill Country have shifted from a chaotic seller's market to a more balanced one, with homes sitting longer on the market and more inventory to choose from. That means buyers have genuine leverage right now: more room to negotiate the price, more room to ask for seller concessions, and more time to complete inspections. That leverage is worth real money, often more than a half-point of rate.
The Buy Now, Refinance Later Play
Rates do not have to be perfect forever because you can refinance. A common, honest strategy is to buy at today's rate with today's buyer leverage, build equity and get into the market, and refinance when rates drop enough to make the math work. Refinancing costs money and takes time, but it converts a future rate drop into a lower payment without giving up the home you wanted. That is why locking in a good price and concessions now can beat waiting.
Have a Real Trigger, Not a Rate Target
Instead of waiting for a magic number, buy when these are true: you are financially ready, the payment fits your budget with room to spare, you have found a home that serves your family for years, and you can negotiate from a position of strength. That combination matters more than any single rate reading, and it is the honest framework I use with every buyer.
Nerd Alert
The actual numbers and math behind this topic, the way I run them on the channel.
Let me compare the payments honestly. On a $295,000 purchase with 10% down and a 6.76% rate, the loan is $265,500 and principal and interest is about $1,722 a month. Add taxes near $490 a month (2.0% effective estimate), insurance near $115, and the full payment is roughly $2,327. Now suppose rates later drop to 5.5%, and you refinance the same $265,500 principal balance: principal and interest falls to about $1,507, saving roughly $215 a month, before refinance costs. That is real, but it is also the upside you are waiting for.
Now the other side. If you wait twelve months and prices rise 3% while you rent, that same $295,000 home is about $303,850, your down payment needs to be larger, and rents have been paid with no equity built. The price climb can eat more than the rate savings. Every figure is an estimate for illustration based on commonly published rates and appreciation, not a projection of what will happen.
- A one-point rate drop on a $265,500 loan saves roughly $155 to $165 a month, but refinance costs and a delayed purchase can offset much of it.
- Three percent annual appreciation on $295,000 adds about $8,850 to the cost of buying the same home a year later.
- Two months of seller concessions or a stronger negotiating position can be worth far more than a half-point of rate.
For a San Antonio buyer the honest math is that today's slower market gives you negotiating leverage that can match or beat a future rate move, and you can always refinance later if rates drop. Waiting carries real rent and appreciation costs, so buy when you are ready and use the leverage you have today. That is exactly the kind of honest view I bring on your side.
These are estimates for illustration, not quotes. Figures use publicly available rates and program terms at the time of writing, and your actual rate, fees, and payment depend on your credit file, loan program, and closing date.
